NNPCL may need to optimize non-operated assets as a Wood Mackenzie report warns production could drop 50% by the 2030s. GCEO Bashir Ojulari targets $60bn investment by 2030, 3m bpd oil output, 500kbpd refining, and 12bcf gas production, aiming to boost energy access.Wood Mackenzie warns that NNPCL may struggle to meet its targets due to a portfolio filled with sub-commercial, non-operated assets, raising concerns about long-term viability.
In a recent podcast, experts noted that while short-term output may rise, production is expected to peak by 2026 and decline sharply afterward.Wood Mackenzie warns that NNPCL’s ambitious 2030 targets may be at risk due to over-reliance on non-operated assets, limited control over production, and a lack of new commercial projects. Experts highlight that while short-term output may grow and peak by 2026, production could fall by 50% by the late 2030s. Structural inefficiencies, sub-commercial reserves, and competition for investment further threaten long-term growth.
Despite President Tinubu’s push for increased oil, gas, and refining capacity, achieving these goals depends heavily on external capital and project development.Wood Mackenzie highlights gas infrastructure gaps as a major hurdle for NNPCL, with less than 20% of reserves deemed viable. Delays in key projects like the OB3 pipeline and high operational costs hinder progress. Rising costs, security issues, and policy challenges affect competitiveness. With oil majors exiting onshore assets, financing now falls to NNPCL and local partners, making future growth uncertain without independent funding.
Wood Mackenzie sees Nigeria’s deepwater reserves as key to future growth but stresses the need for timely projects, better cost control, and clear regulations to avoid production decline. NNPCL is restructuring for agility, data-driven decisions, and stronger partnerships. CEO Bashir Ojulari describes NNPCL as a renewed, forward-looking company focused on innovation, transparency, and national pride. He emphasizes empowering employees and collective effort to make NNPCL a profitable, accountable, and world-class energy leader.
