Goldman Sachs raised its global oil demand forecast to 600,000 bpd for 2025 and 400,000 bpd for 2026 but kept Brent and WTI price forecasts steady at $60 and $56 per barrel for this year. Prices are expected to drop next year due to a possible U.S.-Iran nuclear deal. Recent talks showed progress but also ongoing disagreements, limiting price gains.
The U.S. demands Iran halt uranium enrichment, which Iran refuses to give up. However, the chance of a shorter U.S.-China tariff war improves global growth outlook, boosting oil demand. This led Goldman Sachs to raise its demand forecast, factoring in lower tariffs and higher GDP.
Conversely, if the tariff war continues and negatively impacts real-world economic growth, Goldman Sachs predicts Brent crude could fall to $40 per barrel by late 2026. This scenario would also require OPEC+ to restore all the production cuts made in 2022, according to the analysts.
