Despite a sharp rise in global crude oil prices, a hike in petrol pump prices in Nigeria is unlikely, thanks to a significant drop in petroleum product imports. While Nigeria relies on imports for fuel, local refining capacity has improved.
According to the NBS, petroleum imports fell to ₦3.786 trillion in Q1 2025. Currently, petrol sells for ₦870–₦1,100 per litre, with concerns it could rise to ₦1,200 if crude prices continue to climb.Petroleum imports fell 21.21% in Q1 2025 to ₦3.79tn, driven by increased local refining, notably from the Dangote refinery.
Crude oil exports dropped 16.35% to ₦12.95tn.Other oil product exports rose 134.24% to ₦4.47tn. Agricultural exports hit ₦1.7tn (+64.65%), raw materials ₦1.04tn (+196.12%), while solid minerals declined 7.17% to ₦58.87bn.Crude price surge raises inflation concerns, now at 33.88%, due to higher fuel, food, and transport costs.
Renewed tensions highlight Nigeria’s weak energy supply chain, as the country still relies on imports despite being Africa’s top oil producer. The Dangote Refinery remains dependent on imported crude.Following Israeli airstrikes on Iran on June 12, 2024, oil prices surged: Brent rose 9.76% to $76.12, WTI 9.77% to $74.69, Murban to $75.70, and gas increased 1.95%, reflecting global market panic.
