The European Commission reports that the EU is on track to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by about 54% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, nearly meeting the 55% target set by the European Climate Law. This projection is based on member states’ updated National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), though Belgium, Estonia, and Poland have yet to submit their final plans ahead of the June 2024 deadline. The Commission emphasized that further efforts beyond current policies are still needed.
The EU’s projected emissions reduction relies on full implementation of both national and EU policies. While the bloc is close to its 2030 targets, challenges remain. The EU is expected to fall two percentage points short of the 40% reduction target for sectors like transport, buildings, and agriculture under the Effort Sharing Regulation. Twelve member states are on track to meet their targets with current and additional measures, six plan to use flexibility mechanisms, and five anticipate falling short.
Although most countries are aligning with EU policies to decarbonize transport, some still support fossil-fueled vehicles, which the Commission urges them to phase out. On renewables, national plans generally align with the 42.5% target for 2030, but a 1.5 percentage point gap still exists.
Member States show strong commitment to renewables, aiming for a 41% share in final energy use by 2030. However, a more optimistic outlook based on projections suggests the EU could reach 42.6%. Between 2022 and 2024, about 205 GW of renewable capacity was installed—well above earlier projections from 2019 and 2023 draft plans.The European Commission plans to streamline permitting and update environmental laws in late 2025 to accelerate renewable energy, infrastructure, and storage development—especially in buildings and industry.
A recent study by several think tanks found that 1,700 GW of renewable and hybrid projects are awaiting grid connections across 16 European countries, exceeding what’s needed to meet 2030 goals. The delay is blamed on outdated planning and policies, with many grid operators using obsolete scenarios that fail to reflect the rapid growth of renewables, hindering grid modernization.
