JP Morgan expects oil prices to remain in the low-to-mid $60s through 2025 and around $60 in 2026, despite rising tensions in the Middle East. While the bank acknowledges that extreme scenarios could drive prices much higher, it downplays immediate geopolitical risks.
Current prices, near $70, already reflect some risk premium, trading about $4 above the estimated fair value of $66 for June. U.S. President Trump’s remarks on moving personnel out of the Middle East and Iran’s nuclear stance add to the tension, though no sharp price surge is anticipated.
Analysts warn that in a worst-case scenario, a major Middle East conflict—such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz or retaliatory actions by key oil producers—could cut supply by over 2.1 million barrels per day and push oil prices up to $120–130 per barrel.
